

Stock Market Research Press Release
Have We Entered “The Best Six Months” for Canadian Investors?
New Research Finds Canadian Investors Should Hold Their Stocks Longer Than US Investors
TORONTO, ON – Canadian investors can achieve greater returns by holding their Canadian stocks six weeks longer than our American neighbors retain theirs, according to new market research from TheUpTrend.com
“We were interested in seeing if a best-six-months strategy of market timing worked in the Canadian market,” said Stephen Whiteside, TheUpTrend.com’s president. This strategy, first discovered by Jeffrey A. Hirsch, publisher of the Stock Trader's Almanac, found that the best time to buy and hold US stocks was from Nov. 1 to April 30 each year.
“After analyzing the TSE/TSX data for the past 22 years we were very pleased with the results,” Whiteside said.
In a 22-year period extending from Jan. 2, 1980 to Nov. 1, 2002, the TSE experienced a net gain of 4515.34 points to close at 6321.40.
Using Mr. Hirsch's best-six-month strategy – buying on Nov.1 each year and selling on April 30 the next – one’s net gains would have increased to 5890.67, an increase of 30.46% over simply buying and holding.
1 Buy 11/3/1980 2250.77
Sell 4/30/1981 2306.43 55.66 55.66 Chart
2 Buy 11/2/1981 1882.19
Sell 4/30/1982 1548.17 -334.02 -278.36 Chart
3 Buy 11/1/1982 1790.72
Sell 5/2/1983 2325.95 535.23 256.87 Chart
4 Buy 11/1/1983 2374.75
Sell 4/30/1984 2323.34 -51.41 205.46 Chart
5 Buy 11/1/1984 2354.72
Sell 4/30/1985 2635.31 280.59 486.05 Chart
6 Buy 11/1/1985 2705.40
Sell 4/30/1986 3078.89 373.49 859.54 Chart
7 Buy 11/3/1986 3051.48
Sell 4/30/1987 3716.74 665.26 1524.8 Chart
8 Buy 11/2/1987 3079.92
Sell 5/2/1988 3340.10 260.18 1784.98 Chart
9 Buy 11/1/1988 3396.60
Sell 5/1/1989 3613.14 216.54 2001.52 Chart
10 Buy 11/1/1989 3935.59
Sell 4/30/1990 3340.91 -594.68 1406.84 Chart
11 Buy 11/1/1990 3085.00
Sell 4/30/1991 3468.81 383.81 1790.65 Chart
12 Buy 11/1/1991 3512.58
Sell 4/30/1992 3355.56 -157.02 1633.63 Chart
13 Buy 11/2/1992 3379.04
Sell 4/30/1993 3789.41 410.37 2044 Chart
14 Buy 11/1/1993 4248.02
Sell 5/2/1994 4282.33 34.31 2078.31 Chart
15 Buy 11/1/1994 4264.45
Sell 5/1/1995 4292.44 27.99 2106.3 Chart
16 Buy 11/1/1995 4453.01
Sell 4/30/1996 5146.47 693.46 2799.76 Chart
17 Buy 11/1/1996 5591.31
Sell 4/30/1997 5976.63 385.32 3185.08 Chart
18 Buy 11/3/1997 6945.83
Sell 4/30/1998 7664.99 719.16 3904.24 Chart
19 Buy 11/2/1998 6315.66
Sell 4/30/1999 7014.70 699.04 4603.28 Chart
20 Buy 11/1/1999 7271.30
Sell 5/1/2000 9527.26 2255.96 6859.24 Chart
21 Buy 11/1/2000 9593.98
Sell 4/30/2001 7946.63 -1647.35 5211.89 Chart
22 Buy 11/1/2001 6984.61
Sell 4/30/2002 7663.39 678.78 5890.67 Chart
Investors who bought in the spring and sold in the fall were not treated as kindly. If you bought on April 30 each year and sold on Nov.1, you would have lost a total of 1439.19 points over the 22-year period.
“We wanted to take this research one step further to see if Nov. 1 to April 30 was the best timeframe for Canadians,” Whiteside said. “What we found was that Canadians could do better by holding six weeks longer.”
If you bought on Oct. 27 each year and sold on June 5 the next year, your net gain would have increased to 9483.89. This is an increase of 210% over simply buying and holding and a 61% increase over the original six-month strategy. Using this strategy would have been profitable in 17 of 22 years.
1 Buy 10/27/1980 2301.83
Sell 6/5/1981 2344.68 42.85 42.85 Chart
2 Buy 10/27/1981 1865.10
Sell 6/7/1982 1459.09 -406.01 -363.16 Chart
3 Buy 10/27/1982 1779.19
Sell 6/6/1983 2424.43 645.24 282.08 Chart
4 Buy 10/27/1983 2371.85
Sell 6/5/1984 2280.86 -90.99 191.09 Chart
5 Buy 10/29/1984 2353.05
Sell 6/5/1985 2766.14 413.09 604.18 Chart
6 Buy 10/28/1985 2637.25
Sell 6/5/1986 3084.35 447.1 1051.28 Chart
7 Buy 10/27/1986 3009.67
Sell 6/5/1987 3728.03 718.36 1769.64 Chart
8 Buy 10/27/1987 2876.10
Sell 6/6/1988 3340.31 464.21 2233.85 Chart
9 Buy 10/27/1988 3404.74
Sell 6/5/1989 3722.04 317.3 2551.15 Chart
10 Buy 10/27/1989 3884.25
Sell 6/5/1990 3596.67 -287.58 2263.57 Chart
11 Buy 10/29/1990 3083.35
Sell 6/5/1991 3556.27 472.92 2736.49 Chart
12 Buy 10/28/1991 3455.84
Sell 6/5/1992 3392.56 -63.28 2673.21 Chart
13 Buy 10/27/1992 3286.44
Sell 6/7/1993 3892.18 605.74 3278.95 Chart
14 Buy 10/27/1993 4197.48
Sell 6/6/1994 4268.96 71.48 3350.43 Chart
15 Buy 10/27/1994 4265.46
Sell 6/5/1995 4463.49 198.03 3548.46 Chart
16 Buy 10/27/1995 4335.29
Sell 6/5/1996 5194.94 859.65 4408.11 Chart
17 Buy 10/28/1996 5553.36
Sell 6/5/1997 6449.48 896.12 5304.23 Chart
18 Buy 10/27/1997 6599.24
Sell 6/5/1998 7508.23 908.99 6213.22 Chart
19 Buy 10/27/1998 5996.78
Sell 6/7/1999 7010.75 1013.97 7227.19 Chart
20 Buy 10/27/1999 7011.47
Sell 6/5/2000 9679.65 2668.18 9895.37 Chart
21 Buy 10/27/2000 9321.89
Sell 6/5/2001 8258.82 -1063.07 8832.3 Chart
22 Buy 10/29/2001 6896.34
Sell 6/5/2002 7547.93 651.59 9483.89 Chart
“To ensure that these results were not skewed by the final run-up of the bull market, we also looked at the results from 1980 to 1998,” said Mr. Whiteside.
Using Mr. Hirsch‘s best-six-months strategy resulted in a gain of 3904 points. When the extra six weeks were added, however, gains increased to 6213.22 TSE/TSX points over an 18-year period.
“The 59% increase over Mr. Hirsch’s original formula was in line with the 61% difference we found when including the bull market in its entirety,” Whiteside said.